This article first appeared at gambling.com on January 20th 2020
When the race to become Democrat Nominee began, a prevailing narrative swiftly emerged.
Obsessed with diversity, the base would prefer a woman or person of colour. Ticking both boxes, Kamala Harris was the early favourite in the politics betting markets.
A fortnight from the start of the primaries, that narrative has somewhat imploded. Harris has already quit and two white men in their seventies are leading the pack. Joe Biden is best priced 2/1 compared to 5/2 about Bernie Sanders with Ladbrokes.
Beware assuming this is a two-horse race, though. It is early days and there may be many more twists and turns to come during the primaries. In the first race – the Iowa Caucuses – more than half of voters are still undecided and at least five candidates retain hopes of winning.
One way of looking at the Democrat field is in terms of lanes – specifically progressives versus moderates. The former lane consists of Sanders and Elizabeth Warren – who was favourite earlier and is still very much competitive. The Massachusetts Senator is currently 7/1 with Coral.