Tag: Jo Swinson

  • A December general election could mark the demise of Remainer resistance

    A December general election could mark the demise of Remainer resistance

    This article first appeared yesterday, 29th October 2019, at betting.betfair.com The speculation is all but over – there will be a general election in December. The exact date will be confirmed this afternoon. A market that has seen various different months and years trade at odds-on throughout this chaotic Brexit process is finally all but […]

  • Brexit Latest – The Imminent Election is Anything But Predictable

    Brexit Latest – The Imminent Election is Anything But Predictable

    The pretence is already over. Less than a week after Boris Johnson unveiled his new plan for a Brexit deal, it is in tatters. In line with the strategy discussed many times in recent months, the British government and the EU are at loggerheads. .@BorisJohnson, what’s at stake is not winning some stupid blame game. […]

  • Brexit Latest – What next after Supreme Court strikes down prorogation?

    Brexit Latest – What next after Supreme Court strikes down prorogation?

    The Supreme Court has delivered its unanimous judgement – Boris Johnson’s prorogation of parliament was unlawful. Betfair markets reacted instantly with the PM backed briefly at odds-on to cease to be Conservative Leader this year and a 2019 General Election is now rated 70% likely at odds of 1.42. To be clear though, nobody can […]

  • Brexit Latest: Is Labour’s position electoral suicide or smarter than first appears?

    Brexit Latest: Is Labour’s position electoral suicide or smarter than first appears?

    A core lesson of recent times is to never take political trends and outcomes for granted. To consider counter-intuitive arguments before betting on what appears to be obvious. For example, seven weeks before the 2017 general election, there was much talk about the end of the Labour Party. They lagged 20% behind in the polls, […]

  • Brexit Latest – Election odds-on to occur before Brexit

    Brexit Latest – Election odds-on to occur before Brexit

    This piece was first published on 29th August 2019 for betting.betfair.com Having spent all summer on tenterhooks, waiting to learn precisely how Boris Johnson’s government plans to deliver its Brexit promises, British politics finally blew up yesterday and entered a new, highly unpredictable phase. Prorogation exacerbates political divide Johnson’s decision to prorogue parliament for five […]

  • Latest Brexit Betting – Can Anyone Stop No Deal?

    Latest Brexit Betting – Can Anyone Stop No Deal?

    We may have a new PM, Cabinet, fear of national meltdown and much talk of urgency, but the fundamentals of British politics haven’t changed. The clock towards a no deal Brexit is ticking, politicians and journalists are locked in discussion about how to prevent it. A good time to update my scenarios piece from last […]

  • Who would win a snap general election?

    Who would win a snap general election?

    In the wake of last week’s predicted Brecon and Radnorshire by-election defeat, the Tory majority is reduced to one and a 2019 General Election is all the rage at a best price of just 8/13 with the best political betting sites. Who would win it? Before answering that, we must consider different contexts. One scenario involves […]