Tag: General Election

  • UK General Election Betting – Too early to assume Farage has landed a decisive blow

    UK General Election Betting – Too early to assume Farage has landed a decisive blow

    The last five years of madness have seen one political betting upset after another. One month out from the election, outsider backers have another to consider. The Conservatives are available to lay at just [1.07] to win Most Seats. Labour are 18.0 to back. The reasons are obvious. They’re double-digits behind in the polls and, […]

  • UK General Election: Seven known unknowns heading into the campaign

    UK General Election: Seven known unknowns heading into the campaign

    This article first appeared on 4th November 2019, at betting.betfair.com Everything about the Brexit Party The idea of a formal pact between the Tories and Brexit Party looks doomed after the latter confirmed their intention to fight every constituency. It remains to be seen whether an informal pact, where they target Labour-held Leave seats that […]

  • A December general election could mark the demise of Remainer resistance

    A December general election could mark the demise of Remainer resistance

    This article first appeared yesterday, 29th October 2019, at betting.betfair.com The speculation is all but over – there will be a general election in December. The exact date will be confirmed this afternoon. A market that has seen various different months and years trade at odds-on throughout this chaotic Brexit process is finally all but […]

  • Brexit Latest – What next after Supreme Court strikes down prorogation?

    Brexit Latest – What next after Supreme Court strikes down prorogation?

    The Supreme Court has delivered its unanimous judgement – Boris Johnson’s prorogation of parliament was unlawful. Betfair markets reacted instantly with the PM backed briefly at odds-on to cease to be Conservative Leader this year and a 2019 General Election is now rated 70% likely at odds of 1.42. To be clear though, nobody can […]

  • Brexit Latest: Is Labour’s position electoral suicide or smarter than first appears?

    Brexit Latest: Is Labour’s position electoral suicide or smarter than first appears?

    A core lesson of recent times is to never take political trends and outcomes for granted. To consider counter-intuitive arguments before betting on what appears to be obvious. For example, seven weeks before the 2017 general election, there was much talk about the end of the Labour Party. They lagged 20% behind in the polls, […]

  • Next UK General Election – Latest Thoughts

    Next UK General Election – Latest Thoughts

    We still don’t know precisely when, but a UK General Election is imminent. William Hill offer a best price of 10/11 about it taking place in October, whereas Paddy Power are best at 15/8 about a November election. That small difference in the date is extremely significant. Indeed, punting on the result before we know the date is fraught […]

  • Is an October General Election Inevitable?

    Is an October General Election Inevitable?

    This article was first published on 3rd September at betting.betfair.com After yet another extraordinary, dramatic day in UK politics, few if any observers are any clearer. Quelle surprise. Protesters almost drown out Johnson speech An October General Election – tipped here last week at 4.6 – crashed into 1.25 after it was announced Boris Johnson […]

  • A 2019 election may be Theresa May’s only option

    A 2019 election may be Theresa May’s only option

    Once again, we start the week wondering whether it could be Theresa May’s last in office. The PM will present her Plan B – to the plan that lost by a historic 230 votes – to parliament. If weekend reports are accurate, no meaningful changes will be ensure little or no progress. New amendments set […]

  • How far can Labour’s comeback go?

    How far can Labour’s comeback go?

    It remains a longshot, but in 12 days time the political prediction industry could be in meltdown. Donald Trump may have produced the biggest upset of all-time but even that shock would pale into insignificance compared to Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister. Three weeks ago that eventuality was rated less than 3% likely on our […]