This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on October 18th, 2019
Get set for an unprecedented day in UK politics with Parliament sitting for the first time on a Saturday since the Falklands War. By the end of it, Brexiters hope the last meaningful obstacle to Britain leaving the EU will be cleared. Remainers hope Brexit will become less likely than at any moment since the referendum and that around a million marchers will amplify their case in London.
It is also D-Day for a plethora of Brexit-related markets that have consumed political bettors for more than three years. All are contingent on tomorrow’s parliamentary developments and to some extent one another. To find the best angles, we need to understand those contingencies and therefore, how each market will move throughout the day and beyond.
Will the UK Leave on 31st October 2019?
This is the most popular market, swinging back and forth from the outset, particularly this week. On Thursday morning, ‘No’ was matched at 1.15. By midnight it was trading at odds-against as estimates of the parliamentary maths moved towards the government.
Be careful here – <strong>this does not merely involve the government winning tomorrow’s vote on the Withdrawal Agreement.</strong> Whilst such a result would ensure an imminent Brexit, the deal needs to get through the House of Lords along with various other pieces of related legislation, then be approved by the EU Parliament and all the 27 member states.
Numerous legislation experts have questioned whether that can be done in time. It feels very unlikely but, as we’ve seen throughout the process and in the dramatic change of mood over the past week, process can be hastened to meet deadlines. I’m still very sceptical and am mindful of various pundits implying, before the deal was announced, that everyone involved actually understood there would be a need for a short, technical extension lasting days or weeks.