Brexit Betting – New referendum has become the least worst option

This piece was first published on 2nd April 2019

So, the deadlock and agonising wait for clarity goes on. Yesterday’s second round of indicative votes again failed to produce any consensus whatsoever, with all four motions failing to pass.

Parliament still can’t find consensus

Some progress however was made. The motion for a confirmatory referendum lost by just 12 votes, while the Customs Union and Common Market 2.0 options fell short by three and 21 respectively. Any could very well pass if and when abstaining MPs come off the fence in a later round of voting.

Right now, everything remains up in the air. A third round of indicative votes are set for Wednesday and there is also talk of Theresa May bringing her Meaningful Vote back to the Commons. The latter is 1.6 to pass at any stage during 2019.

No Deal rising on Betfair markets

Meanwhile, an increasing number of bettors, politicians and pundits all rate No Deal as likelier – the UK is now ten days away from leaving the EU without a deal unless either the Withdrawal Agreement is passed, or the EU grants a long extension to Article 50. No Deal at any time during 2019 is now rated 30% likely on Betfair at odds of 3.2.

No doubt, Boulton is right about sentiment among the Tory party and Brexiters in general. However the odds are short enough, considering parliament has repeatedly, clearly expressed a desire to prevent no deal and has the tools to stop it. Without this outcome being mandated via a new election or a referendum, I don’t see it happening. The Tories don’t have the numbers.

Nevertheless at risk of stating the obvious, the drama is palpable. To rounds of applause, Tory MP <strong>Nick Boles</strong> crossed the floor after his Common Market 2.0 plan lost, accusing his party of failing to compromise.

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