Month: May 2017

  • 2017 General Election: The six best Labour constituency bets

    2017 General Election: The six best Labour constituency bets

    So you want to bet on Labour. You’ve seen their polls rise throughout their campaign and believe they have momentum. Jeremy Corbyn has easily surpassed low media expectations, while Theresa May’s ‘strong and stable’ brand has nosedived during the campaign. Moreover, you’ve seen with Brexit and Donald Trump that the media and long-range betting market […]

  • General Election 2017: 5 dynamics to follow during the TV debates

    General Election 2017: 5 dynamics to follow during the TV debates

    As we enter the closing stretch, the time has come for those make-or-break TV moments, starting tonight with The Battle for Number Ten on Sky News. Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn will face a grilling from Jeremy Paxman and a studio audience. Then on Wednesday, BBC host a seven-way debate. This will involve the leaders […]

  • How far can Labour’s comeback go?

    How far can Labour’s comeback go?

    It remains a longshot, but in 12 days time the political prediction industry could be in meltdown. Donald Trump may have produced the biggest upset of all-time but even that shock would pale into insignificance compared to Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister. Three weeks ago that eventuality was rated less than 3% likely on our […]

  • General Election 2017: Constituency Guide

    General Election 2017: Constituency Guide

    Arguably the very best betting value in this election is to be found in the constituency betting. The UK is in the middle of a dramatic realignment in terms of party affiliation, with significant regional and demographic variations. I’ve selected 50 of the most interesting and competitive races, analysing each and making a prediction. Throughout […]

  • General Election 2017: 5 indicators of the state of play

    General Election 2017: 5 indicators of the state of play

    1) Theresa May’s honeymoon is well and truly over Back at the start of this election campaign, I mooted the idea that the enormous Tory poll leads were unrealistic – a peak moment of Theresa May’s long honeymoon with the voters. After a week of manifesto chaos and sliding poll numbers, it is definitely over. […]

  • Why Theresa May will eventually regret calling this election

    Why Theresa May will eventually regret calling this election

    The Prime Minister should count her lucky stars that elections aren’t determined by manifestos. After dominating the last week’s news cycle, their effect threatens to change British politics. Labour have enjoyed their best week in years, while yesterday’s Tory launch seemed to achieve nothing besides generate criticism from both left and right. Labour are surging […]

  • Will Donald Trump be forced out early?

    Will Donald Trump be forced out early?

    Everything about his unique campaign suggested the Trump presidency would not be a conventional one, and so it has proved. A mere 121 days in, Betfair punters are backing him to leave before the end of his first term. Normally at this stage of the election cycle, betting on US politics would be focused on […]

  • Who will provide the Portillo Moment of 2017?

    Who will provide the Portillo Moment of 2017?

    For the benefit of younger readers, to whom Michael Portillo is a charming, urbane character with a penchance for trains, this title requires explanation. It wasn’t always this way. 20 years ago, #sadmanonatrain was a toxic figure in a deeply unpopular Tory government. His 1997 defeat to Stephen Twigg was later voted the public’s third […]

  • Labour’s radical manifesto can avert total meltdown

    Labour’s radical manifesto can avert total meltdown

    Thursday was rather odd. One week on from historically bad local election results, with national polls pointing to a similar disaster on June 8th, Betfair punters moved Labour’s odds in a positive direction. Granted, that improvement was extremely marginal and doesn’t even begin to signal a change in the likely general election result, but the […]

  • Will Labour unite around a Cooper coronation?

    Will Labour unite around a Cooper coronation?

    In the aftermath of electoral defeat, it is conventional for the main opposition to pick a new leader. Especially if the party goes backwards. That has been the case after every election since 1987, whether Conservative or Labour. The last to stay in post was Neil Kinnock, uncontroversially given that his efforts had just yielded […]