Month: October 2016

  • Are new Clinton e-mail revelations a gamechanger?

    Are new Clinton e-mail revelations a gamechanger?

    In ten days, hundreds of millions of people will breathe a huge sigh of relief as the strangest, most entertaining, depressing, dramatic and unpredictable election in democratic history is finally resolved. And that’s just American voters. Those of us who’ve spent the last year trading Betfair’s US election markets will need a holiday. New FBI […]

  • A Clinton landslide is still under-rated

    A Clinton landslide is still under-rated

    The following piece was published on Thursday, before the latest e-mail drama. The odds have moved considerably since against Clinton, but the general argument still applies. With less than a fortnight until polling day, the verdict from various prediction models and Betfair markets is unanimous. Hillary Clinton is overwhelmingly likely to become the Next President. […]

  • Richmond presents a golden opportunity for Lib Dems

    Richmond presents a golden opportunity for Lib Dems

    As various recent events on both sides of the Atlantic illustrate, conventional political parties are creaking under the weight of international, cultural and ideological pressures. Voters are less inclined to affiliate or identify themselves with one party, or one set of policies. Party members less likely to take instruction from leaders. The British party system […]

  • Key Election States: NORTH CAROLINA

    Key Election States: NORTH CAROLINA

    Electoral College Votes: 15 Latest Live Odds Realclearpolitics poll average One of the key battlegrounds. Obama won in 2008 – becoming the first Democrat to do so since 1976 – but lost in 2012. If Clinton wins these 15 electoral college votes back, it becomes extremely hard to imagine her losing. No Republican has won […]

  • How Evan McMullin could be the next #POTUS

    How Evan McMullin could be the next #POTUS

    One of many strange features of this unique election cycle has been that, ever since the primary process yielded historically unpopular candidates, there has been constant speculation about finding alternatives to Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. First there was months of speculation about Trump being blocked at the Republican Convention – prompting gambles about several […]

  • Debate Review: Donald Trump blows his final chance

    Debate Review: Donald Trump blows his final chance

    Fighting against a backdrop of terrible polls, Donald Trump desperately needed a gamechanging, momentum-reversing performance in last night’s third and final debate. He didn’t produce it. Compared to the two previous debates and perhaps above expectations, Trump actually performed pretty well. Focus groups of undecided voters on both CNN and CBS said he edged it […]

  • Portfolio update: Trading and hedging plans explained

    Portfolio update: Trading and hedging plans explained

    As implied in yesterday’s piece, I could hardly be more confident about my long-running pro-Clinton positions. Trump is headed for a big defeat and the task is to measure the scale of it. At this stage, I’m not altering the published portfolio. I’m heavily invested in a big Clinton victory and expect the market will […]

  • Key States Analysis: COLORADO

    Key States Analysis: COLORADO

    Electoral College Votes: 9 Latest Live Odds Realclearpolitics poll average This state perfectly demonstrates the enormous task faced by any Republican pursuing the presidency nowadays, let alone a divisive candidate like Trump. Prior to Barack Obama, Colorado was reliably red, only voting Democrat once between 1964 and 2008. Now it seems almost naturally Democrat, forming […]

  • Locked in a negative spiral, Trump is on course for a huge defeat

    Locked in a negative spiral, Trump is on course for a huge defeat

    If we can trust the opinion polls, Donald Trump’s bid for the presidency appears to be doomed. Three weeks from polling day and ahead of tomorrow’s final TV debate, the Republican candidate trails Hillary Clinton across a slate of national polls by an average 7% and sometimes double-digit margins. By comparison, at this stage four […]

  • Key #Election2016 States: NEW HAMPSHIRE

    Key #Election2016 States: NEW HAMPSHIRE

    Electoral College Votes: 4 Latest Live Odds Realclearpolitics poll average Most famous for it’s pivotal ‘first in the nation’ primary, NH is another key plank of Clinton’s firewall. Polls consistently put her ahead but it is worth remembering that she lost this primary to Bernie Sanders, whereas victory on the GOP side propelled Trump towards […]