Month: March 2016

  • Markets swing towards a contested convention

    Markets swing towards a contested convention

    If one takes the view that the Republican Nominee can only be the candidate who earns the most delegates from the primaries, there is a rare opportunity to make money. Either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz will certainly emerge with the most delegates, yet their combined rating on the Betfair market is only 80%. Spread […]

  • Interview with Steve Cheveney for Fox

    Interview with Steve Cheveney for Fox

    My second visit to the Fox studios in Washington DC was particularly enjoyable. In this film, I discuss the concept, scale and nature of political betting with Steve Cheveney, in addition to updating the US election odds and forecasting the race ahead. This was the morning of the Fox News Republican Debate from Detroit, about which I correctly […]

  • Markets strongly signal Clinton beating Trump

    Markets strongly signal Clinton beating Trump

    As one unique candidate continues to dominate headlines and divide opinion across the world, Betfair markets are delivering a clear verdict on how the Donald Trump saga will develop, and end. Trump is rated extremely likely to be the Republican Nominee but subsequently lose the General Election. Hillary Clinton is rated likelier than ever to […]

  • Arizona could be the last chance to stop Trump

    Arizona could be the last chance to stop Trump

    As in everything,  the gap between success and failure can be painfully thin in both betting and politics. The Missouri primaries demonstrated precisely why betting on politics can be so much fun. The combination of an updating televised scorecard alongside moving betting markets is highly addictive and there aren’t many markets where you have to […]

  • Super Tuesday 3: Bets and predictions

    Super Tuesday 3: Bets and predictions

    On what feels like it will be the most important night yet of this election, we have ten races to predict and play. Some of the odds have changed in the meantime, but yesterday’s piece offers a brief overview. First, lets start with a bet. Back Ted Cruz to win the Missouri Primary 10 units […]

  • Super Tuesday is crunch time for the #NeverTrump movement

    Super Tuesday is crunch time for the #NeverTrump movement

    Although there are many more important dates during the remaining three months of the primary schedule, two stand out as pivotal and ultimately decisive. The first is tomorrow and will go a long way towards defining the importance of the second. If you take the view that Donald Trump’s bid for the nomination is unstoppable, […]

  • Five pivotal races for Super Tuesday 3

    Five pivotal races for Super Tuesday 3

    This year’s US Election cycle differs from the historical norm in so many ways, and not just due to unique candidates like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. Normally by mid-March, the parties would be in the process of coalescing around an overwhelmingly likely candidate. This time, with protest and violence at GOP front-runner Trump rallies […]

  • Next steps in the Republican race

    Next steps in the Republican race

    After months of watching the GOP civil war unfold live at the TV debates, the latest one from Miami came as something of a culture shock. On what could plausibly be the last one, or at least the last involving more than two candidates, everyone was civil and policy-focused. There was no obvious winner or […]

  • GOP split as Trump maintains momentum

    GOP split as Trump maintains momentum

    The 2016 US Election remains the most exciting heat in the history of political betting and the fun has barely started. Mid-March is traditionally the time when the primary races become predictable, with both parties broadly settled on their nominees. This time is completely different. Even the Democrat side, where the market rates Hillary Clinton […]

  • Two new anti-Trump bets as his bid stalls

    Two new anti-Trump bets as his bid stalls

    We’ve just had four more results in the Republican Nomination process, with two wins apiece for Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. I’ve been tweeting all day about it and will doubtless be writing and talking more as the week goes on. We have a pivotal primary to come on Tuesday, in Michigan. Coming off the […]