Why Donald Trump will not be re-elected in 2020
The world awoke yesterday to the US mid-term election results with one question in mind – will Donald Trump be re-elected? As I have argued consistently since he took office, the answer is no. Nothing about these results, and everything about the immediate aftermath, makes me more certain. 2020 betting unmoved by mid-term signals Many […]
Are these the 10 names on Trump’s VP shortlist?
With confirmation that Hillary Clinton will not be indicted and with a few days until the long-winded plans to strip Donald Trump from the Republican nomination are almost certainly defeated, the big story involves their respective VP picks. Trump goes first in Cleveland next week and speculation continues to circle about numerous candidates, even at […]
New bets on the race to be Donald Trump’s VP
We are fast learning to expect the unconventional and unpredictable in politics, but it’s hard to remember any trickier market to play than this cycle’s Republican Vice Presidential Nominee. Quite simply, as with everything else about Donald Trump, normal rules need not apply. Normally, we would expect the presumptive nominee to pursue a balanced ticket, to […]
7 potential VP picks for Donald Trump
With the Republican nomination secure, the next big election market involves identifying Donald Trump’s running mate. So far I’ve taken two positions, opposing John Kasich and Ben Carson for the job. Here I look at seven alternatives being reported as in the running. Newt Gingrich Dominating the market is one of the best-known figures in […]
Next market: Who will be Donald Trump’s running mate?
So after all that, the GOP race is over. No dramatic finale in California, let alone the fascinating, unique spectacle of a brokered convention. It seems incredible that, less than three weeks ago, Donald Trump was weaker on betting markets than he’d been for months, drifting out to around 45%. Even more so that he […]