Will Keir Starmer turn Labour’s fortunes around?
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 4th April 2020 Sir Keir Starmer has been confirmed as the new Labour leader and Angela Rayner will be his deputy. Their victories were resounding. Starmer won in the first round of the party’s AV system with 56.2%. Rayner won 41.7% in the first round and passed the […]
Six famous leadership contest upsets
This piece first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 1st April 2020 For weeks, the markets for Next Labour Leader and Next Deputy Labour Leader have been stagnant. It is assumed that Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner will win, as respective odds of [1.02] and [1.01] illustrate. I’ve no reason to expect an upset but were the […]
Next Labour Leader – History tells us to beware early signals
The Labour leadership contest has a clear front-runner. Keir Starmer isn’t the first to trade at odds-on to succeed Jeremy Corbyn – Rebecca Long Bailey did so before Christmas, as did Owen Smith back in 2016. However the former Director of Public Prosecutions is the first to hold this position in the betting based on […]
Will Labour unite around a Cooper coronation?
In the aftermath of electoral defeat, it is conventional for the main opposition to pick a new leader. Especially if the party goes backwards. That has been the case after every election since 1987, whether Conservative or Labour. The last to stay in post was Neil Kinnock, uncontroversially given that his efforts had just yielded […]
Clive Lewis poised as punters back Corbyn for early exit
Yesterday, anticipating Clive Lewis’ resignation from Labour’s Shadow Cabinet, I advised a new bet on the Norwich South MP at 8/1, following on from much earlier advice at 25/1. Today’s article discusses his prospects and the wider Labour crisis. New bet in light of looming Labour drama: Backed Clive Lewis 20 units @ 8-1 […]
Labour’s suicidal civil war will escalate, not end after Corbyn’s victory
This week, the result of the Labour leadership contest will be announced. The market rates Jeremy Corbyn overwhelming 98% favourite to win at 1.02 but, as announced on Twitter last week, I’m taking no chances and took my 22 unit profit when the odds went to 1.04. Why take the risk when there are party […]
Where are the Labour heavyweights?
When Labour last had a leadership contest, I successfully predicted Jeremy Corbyn at 24-1 for various reasons. One particularly stood out. The three ‘establishment’ candidates were terrible. In the weeks leading up to Corbyn’s surprise entry, online campaigns were launched to find a better candidate – Lisa Nandy and Keir Starmer for example. Neither took […]
Brexit update: Time to cover on Leave
Following weeks of big stakes on betting markets without that much volatility, exciting things are definitely afoot. Polls clearly identify a shift in favour of LEAVE and, despite daily waves of resistance, it is moving closer by the minute to REMAIN, the longstanding favourite. This is a very positive development for my various betting positions, […]
How long can Jeremy Corbyn survive?
There has been much talk in the USA about the Republicans committing electoral suicide and it seems the phenomenon has spread to the UK Left, with the Labour Party seemingly hell-bent on implosion. Ahead of key elections across the UK on Thursday, Labour are in a terrible place. Ken Livingstone’s suspension amid accusations of anti-semitism […]