Cross-party soft Brexit deal could be on but will need a new Tory leader

This article was written on March 22nd 2019, for

Another extraordinary, historic day in the Brexit process yielded more drama on Betfair markets as the biggest related betting market to date – Will the UK leave on 29/03/19 – was finally all but settled.

A50 extension foils late no deal gamble

Throughout the afternoon, a big gamble developed about an on-time exit, without a deal, as EU leaders disagreed over whether and how long an extension to Article 50 was acceptable. At one stage that eventuality shortened to 4.1 as the mood turned particularly febrile – a joint declaration by the entrenched political foes of the CBI and TUC that we are facing a national emergency summed up the situation.

Eventually, a new deadline of April 11th was announced, which seems to have foiled that gamble. Leaving in seven days time is now available to back at 34.0. The threat of no deal, however, is far from dead and perhaps likelier than ever, albeit a few weeks down the line. April-June has hardened to 2.3 43% to be the Brexit Date.

May is in a weaker position than ever

What now? Despite Tuesday’s speech blaming MPs and politicians drawing ridicule and condemnation across the political spectrum, Theresa May remains in post. A consensus is forming that these are her final days in the job is forming though. She’s rated 2.5 to go between April and June – advised last week at 4.2.

Next, the PM will put her Meaningful Vote to the Commons for a third time (assuming Speaker John Bercow accepts whatever small changes are presented amount to a material difference). Latest odds on Betfair of 3.5 imply it has a 29% chance of passing.

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