Month: November 2019

  • How to bet on the 2019 UK General Election

    How to bet on the 2019 UK General Election

    Back in March, I recommended a bet on the UK holding a General Election in 2019 at odds of +176 (7/4). That bet went to the wire before ultimately winning – the election will be held in less than two weeks, on December 12. As always it is a huge betting heat, involving hundreds of different markets. […]

  • UK General Election Constituency Guide Part 8

    UK General Election Constituency Guide Part 8

    Southampton Itchen Click here for latest live odds Buoyed no doubt by a third of the constituency being aged 18-34, Labour came within 331 votes of an upset here in 2017. While polls show significant national swing against them since, gaining it is not beyond them, especially if the rise in youth registration translates into […]

  • UK General Election: Overview and betting strategy

    UK General Election: Overview and betting strategy

    This article first appeared at The Hub, on Monday 25th November Last month, I explained how the United Kingdom’s Brexit impasse had prompted a General Election, scheduled for 12th December. Now, halfway through the campaign, let’s consider the hundreds of markets available on Betfair. All signals point towards a thumping Conservative win. They are between […]

  • UK General Election Constituency Guide Part 7

    UK General Election Constituency Guide Part 7

    Bristol North West Click here for latest live odds This constituency should act as a warning to those predicting huge Tory majorities. It is Labour’s 41st most vulnerable to a Tory takeover but they should have high hopes of retaining it even on a terrible night. 26% of the population are under 35 and the […]

  • UK General Election Constituency Guide Part 6: Tories will be eyeing these ten Labour targets

    UK General Election Constituency Guide Part 6: Tories will be eyeing these ten Labour targets

    Reading East Click here for latest live odds This was another massive upset in 2017 as Labour enjoyed a 10% swing from the Tories to regain a seat lost in 2005, despite winning nationally. That turnaround speaks volumes about how party affiliation has changed and in this 62% Remain seat, Brexit certainly appears to have […]

  • UK General Election Constituency Guide Part 5: Gain these ten Labour seats and a Tory majority is on

    UK General Election Constituency Guide Part 5: Gain these ten Labour seats and a Tory majority is on

    Derby North Click here for latest live odds While Derby North is down in 21st place among their Labour-held targets, the Tories will be very confident of victory now that Chris Williamson is standing as an Independent. The controversial left-wing Labour MP – suspended following his response to the party’s anti-semitism crisis – is bound […]

  • UK General Election: Seven Exciting Constituency Betting Heats

    UK General Election: Seven Exciting Constituency Betting Heats

    Gambling.com  »  Online Betting  »  Strategy This article first appeared at gambling.com on November 15th. In light of the stalling Lib Dem campaign, I’m less inclined to back them in Portsmouth South now, although I haven’t given up. To understand why this is the most unpredictable general election in living memory, check out the constituency betting. Literally hundreds could […]

  • UK General Election Constituency Guide Part 4: CON-held Lib Dem targets ranked 11-20

    UK General Election Constituency Guide Part 4: CON-held Lib Dem targets ranked 11-20

    This piece was first published on 19th November 2019 Cornwall North Click here for latest live odds Although relatively high on the Lib Dem target list, this is another Cornwall seat that will be very hard to pick up. The constituency voted 60% in favour of Leave in 2016 and the Tory majority is more […]

  • How long can Donald Trump survive?

    How long can Donald Trump survive?

    This article first appeared on 21st November 2019 at www.casino.org Four years analysing the betting around Donald Trump has frequently involved speculating whether, how and when this incredible story will end. My last update predicted a terrible autumn for the President, beset by multiple investigations, resulting in impeachment by the House of Representatives. As we watch […]

  • UK General Election Constituency Betting Part 3: Ten Labour seats in realistic range for the Tories

    UK General Election Constituency Betting Part 3: Ten Labour seats in realistic range for the Tories

    Peterborough Click here for latest live odds Peterborough is precisely the sort of seat where Tories are right to worry about the presence of Brexit Party, whose 29% in a by-election earlier this year was mostly achieved at Tory expense. While that enabled Labour to hold the seat despite their previous MP going to prison […]