Month: October 2015

  • Betting markets take a firm view about Rubio

    Betting markets take a firm view about Rubio

    But will the polls follow suit? After a couple of days digesting the fallout from the latest Republican debate, there are clear conclusions to be drawn regarding who won or lost, whose stock rose or fell. Jeb Bush’s campaign is in total crisis. The longstanding early market favourite was put firmly, embarrassingly in his place […]

  • Four pointers to watch for in the CNBC Republican debate

    Four pointers to watch for in the CNBC Republican debate

    1) Is this the night Donald Trump’s abuse wears thin? With less than 100 days until the Iowa Caucus, the race to be the Republican Nominee continues to defy convention, expert opinion and the wishes of the party elite. Few expected 14 candidates to still be on the stage for Wednesday’s third TV debate, live […]

  • Could tax credits row halt the Osborne bandwagon?

    Could tax credits row halt the Osborne bandwagon?

    Is the Tory front-runners curse set to strike again? In every Conservative Party leadership contest since the advent of political betting, the early favourite went on to lose. With David Cameron saying he won’t run again, the starting pistol has been fired on the next race and George Osborne is very much in pole position. […]

  • Is this the beginning of the end for Jeb Bush?

    Is this the beginning of the end for Jeb Bush?

    One-time favourite is sliding badly on the betting markets From the moment Jeb Bush announced his Presidential bid, boosted by a stack of mega-donors, the former Florida Governor became red-hot favourite on the betting markets to be the Republican candidate. However as in the last two elections, the early money for this market increasingly looks […]

  • Unarguably, a great day for Donald Trump

    Front-runner extends his advantage in slew of new polls Thus far, while Donald Trump’s bid to be the Republican Nominee has dominated the headlines, polls, tone and narrative of that race, betting markets have generally remained sceptical. It is all froth, driven by a media seeking viewers and fundamentally unreliable polls based on name recognition, […]

  • Five reasons why Ted Cruz is the best current bet

    Five reasons why Ted Cruz is the best current bet

    1) Cruz is well-positioned in the polls for when the field whittles down The picture regarding who will be the Republican Nominee remains as unclear as ever, with 15 candidates still in the race. The crowded field has worked to the advantage of outsiders, whose pitch is that bit more interesting and newsworthy than conventional […]

  • Will the London Mayor be decided by personality or party?

    Will the London Mayor be decided by personality or party?

    What happens when neither main candidate is extremely famous already? Unless something dramatic occurs to produce some sort of party leadership contest in the meantime, the next big political betting event in the UK is next May’s London Mayoral Election. In the absence of a significant third candidate, the betting is naturally dominated by Labour’s […]

  • Betting markets dismiss Biden, but are they premature?

    Betting markets dismiss Biden, but are they premature?

    Joe Biden is friendless on Betfair There’s no question who has fared best on the markets since Tuesday’s opening Democrat debate. Hillary Clinton begun the evening as a 68% chance to win her party’s nomination. She is now rated 76% likely. For the Presidency, her rating jumped from 39% pre-debate to the current 43%. Those […]

  • Biden indecision leaves the way clear for Clinton

    Biden indecision leaves the way clear for Clinton

    Strong debate performance eases party nerves and puts Hillary in pole position While the early election coverage has principally focused on the huge Trump-dominated field for the race to be Republican Nominee, recent news regarding the Democrat contest has been almost relentlessly bad for Hillary Rodham Clinton. Though hot favourite, rated up to 50% likely […]

  • Will this be the night Bernie breaks through?

    Will this be the night Bernie breaks through?

    Democrat outsider is the day’s big market mover on Betfair Money is pouring in on Betfair for Bernie Sanders in the run-up to tonight’s Democratic Party debate on CNN. The 74 year-old Vermont Senator has reached his highest rating yet, at 15% to win the Nomination and 8% for the Presidency. Before reading too much into this […]