Could 2023 see a new Tory leadership crisis and Boris Johnson return?
Sunak and Jeremy Hunt lack legitimacy among the grassroots. Tax rises in the latest budget are deeply unpopular and fear of revolt explains precisely why Sunak has u-turned on issues such as onshore wind and housebuilding targets.
Politics Live Update: UK government rocked by worsening economic crisis
Today’s update concerns more terrible economic news and political fallout for Liz Truss’ government, in the wake of their controversial mini-budget. There is much speculation that Truss and/or her Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng will be forced out of their jobs imminently, and a wide range of betting markets around those subjects. My instinct is that Kwarteng […]
Will Truss survive to the next election and, if not, who replaces her?
we are at the stage of Liz Truss’ tenure as Prime Minister where convention dictates she would get a bounce in the polls, or at least a hearing. After the collapse of Tory support under Boris Johnson, the only way was supposed to be up. Wrong.
Politics Live Blog: Labour odds now in freefall
Today’s entry reports on five extraordinary polls released yesterday, and a dramatic shift in betting sentiment towards Labour during the past seven days, since Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget.
Keir Starmer’s textbook opposition strategy looks vindicated
In that sense, he’s following in the footsteps of the previously successful opposition leader, Tony Blair. The parallels with the 1990s, Black Wednesday and Tory implosion, are obvious.
Is Liz Truss being prematurely written off?
The key to successful betting on politics is thinking ahead, trying to forecast the trajectory of events and their effect.
The Six Biggest Betting Heats to Follow in 2022
My view is Johnson will resign around May, after tax, NI and energy price rises contribute towards a disastrous set of local election results.
Latest Boris Johnson Exit Odds: Is Boris on the Brink?
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 23rd November 2021 Boris Johnson’s bad month goes from worse to terrible and Betfair markets are responding. The Prime Minister is now around evens to no longer be Conservative leader by 2024 and the odds about a 2022 exit are down to [3.45] – equivalent to a 29% […]
Is Rishi Sunak the next Prime Minister or a dodgy early favourite?
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 9th March British politics remains completely dominated by the Conservative Party. After a decade in office, increasing their vote share with each election, they continually trounce Labour in the polls. This may not therefore seem like an obvious time to be discussing a change of leadership. Boris Johnson […]