Month: April 2020

  • US Election: If not Trump versus Biden, then whom?

    US Election: If not Trump versus Biden, then whom?

    “This cycle has been rife with rumours of a Democrat fix for months. That a brokered convention would result in the DNC imposing somebody who hadn’t even entered the primaries.”

  • Extensive Interview For “The Political Trade” Podcast

    Extensive Interview For “The Political Trade” Podcast

    Earlier this week, I enjoyed a long conversation with Jeff Joseph and Mike Reddy for “The Political Trade” – the podcast associated with Luckbox magazine. Our wide-ranging discussion involved the development and wider trends within political betting, as well of course as extensive analysis of the 2020 election. It was truly an honour to be […]

  • Starmer Thrives at PMQs But Does it Matter?

    Starmer Thrives at PMQs  But Does it Matter?

    “So far as the commentariat were concerned, the new Labour leader made a big impact.”

  • US Election: Four worrying signals for Donald Trump

    US Election: Four worrying signals for Donald Trump

    “What is clear is that picking fights with state governors such as Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer is counter to majority opinion in individual states. So too the anti-lockdown protests from his supporters.”

  • Who Should We Follow in 2020 – Polls or Betting Markets?

    Who Should We Follow in 2020 – Polls or Betting Markets?

    “We are still around two hundred days out so plenty can change. However right now, there is a vast disparity between what the polls imply and the weight of money in betting markets.”

  • Democrat VP Betting: Which woman will Biden pick?

    Democrat VP Betting: Which woman will Biden pick?

    This article first appeared on 10th April 2020 at betting.betfair.com Now Bernie Sanders has suspended his presidential campaign, the way is clear for Joe Biden to secure the Democratic Nomination. The former VP is now rated a [1.1] chance to be his party’s candidate. If you’re wondering why he’s even that high, that can only […]

  • Will Keir Starmer turn Labour’s fortunes around?

    Will Keir Starmer turn Labour’s fortunes around?

    This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 4th April 2020 Sir Keir Starmer has been confirmed as the new Labour leader and Angela Rayner will be his deputy. Their victories were resounding. Starmer won in the first round of the party’s AV system with 56.2%. Rayner won 41.7% in the first round and passed the […]

  • Will coronavirus or other indicators determine the 2020 Election?

    Will coronavirus or other indicators determine the 2020 Election?

    This article first appeared at casino.org on 3rd April 2020 At every election, various theories are put forward about which indicators will determine the result. Most famously, “It’s the economy, stupid”. Or does success or failure in foreign policy move the needle? Is it all about ad-buying, media coverage, or simply the electoral appeal of […]

  • Six famous leadership contest upsets

    Six famous leadership contest upsets

    This piece first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 1st April 2020 For weeks, the markets for Next Labour Leader and Next Deputy Labour Leader have been stagnant. It is assumed that Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner will win, as respective odds of [1.02] and [1.01] illustrate. I’ve no reason to expect an upset but were the […]

  • Cuomo gamble is merely the latest speculative punt without substance

    Cuomo gamble is merely the latest speculative punt without substance

    Normally at this stage of a US Presidential cycle, we would be fully focused on a head-to-head race between the presumptive Republican and Democrat nominees. The former blocked primary challenges to ensure Donald Trump had a clear run. The latter’s primary remains ongoing but the scorecard overwhelmingly favours Joe Biden. The betting signal, however, less […]