Month: December 2019

  • Next Labour Leader Candidates – Strengths and Weaknesses

    Next Labour Leader Candidates – Strengths and Weaknesses

    Rebecca Long Bailey has key backing from the Left POSITIVE: During Jeremy Corbyn’s four years as Labour leader, the Left of the party assumed control of much of the internal machinery – the National Executive Committee, for instance – prompting a narrative that his allies are now in total control. If that is so, Rebecca […]

  • How the Commentariat Underestimated Boris Johnson

    How the Commentariat Underestimated Boris Johnson

    What a difference a few months can make in politics. When Boris Johnson became Tory leader back in July, bookies were taking bets on him being the shortest-lived PM in history. Even 2020 seemed a long way off. Having secured the biggest Tory majority since Margaret Thatcher, it’s now plausible he could become the longest serving. […]

  • Four takeaways from the UK General Election

    Four takeaways from the UK General Election

    This article first appeared on 16th December, for betting.betfair.com The Exit Poll emerges triumphant but is imperfect This may sound strange, having spent the last six weeks totally immersed in it, but this was quite a boring election. At least from a betting perspective. Once the Tories opened up an early lead, victory never looked […]

  • Next Labour Leader – Who will succeed Corbyn?

    Next Labour Leader – Who will succeed Corbyn?

    This article first appeared on December 13th at gambling.com The post-mortem began less than a minute after 10pm last night, when the exit poll accurately predicted Labour’s worst result since 1935. Jeremy Corbyn has confirmed he won’t lead Labour into another election but, frustratingly for the 6/1 bet advised in January on all three party leaders […]

  • UK General Election – Final Predictions

    UK General Election – Final Predictions

    At this stage of the last general election, we pundits were in unanimous agreement that Theresa May would win a majority. My predictions were very much at the lower end of those estimates yet still proved miles off, as Labour pulled off one of the most remarkable upsets in the history of political betting. Don’t […]

  • UK General Election Analysis

    UK General Election Analysis

    This piece was first published on Tuesday 10th December for gambling.com In previewing this general election over several months, I’ve put up two positions available on the political betting sites – Conservatives to win most seats at 4-5, No Overall Majority at 4-6. According to the betting, the first is nailed on at 1-20 with BetVictor, with the […]

  • How will the Liberal Democrats fare?

    How will the Liberal Democrats fare?

    If I could take back one recent prediction, it regards Jo Swinson and the Lib Dems. When this campaign started, I thought they would benefit from extra exposure, particularly for their Revoke stance on Brexit – divisive for sure, but clearer than Labour’s muddled offering. 20-25% seemed realistic. As it transpires, the Lib Dem in the last […]

  • UK General Election – How will Labour fare?

    UK General Election – How will Labour fare?

    This article first appeared at gambling.com on 3rd December. With a fortnight of campaigning left, there’s no doubt Labour are in a very bad place. On current estimates derived from YouGov’s MRP model, they will lose 51 seats, handing the Tories a majority of 68. As always in political betting on elections, remember to treat such projections […]

  • UK General Election: How will the Conservatives fare?

    UK General Election: How will the Conservatives fare?

    This article first appeared at gambling.com on November 27th 2019 There are numerous ways to get involved in political betting in an election, covering just about every angle of each party’s performance. But what is the best way to bet on a party you expect to go well? Take the example of the front-runners in the polls. […]

  • UK General Election Constituency Guide Part 10: Ten targets that would propel SNP to 2015 heights

    UK General Election Constituency Guide Part 10: Ten targets that would propel SNP to 2015 heights

    Ochil and South Perthshire Click here for latest live odds This is another constituency that voted for different parties in the last three general elections – the Tories came from third last time, aided by the Labour vote falling 8%. This share probably correlates with Unionist fears of independence and a 40% Leave vote. The […]