Month: June 2016

  • Boris must be regarded the Tory front-runner

    Boris must be regarded the Tory front-runner

    Favouritism for the Conservative Leadership race has been switching back and forth between Boris Johnson and Theresa May all day. At one stage May went down to 2.34 (43%) but tonight Johnson is back in front at 2.3 (43%) to her odds of 3.1 (32%). I think this is right, and managed to jump aboard […]

  • Next Tory leader market points to Boris v May

    Next Tory leader market points to Boris v May

    Political bettors have never had it so good. No sooner have we drawn breath, following the most significant vote in living memory and the biggest market in political betting history, than we are presented with concurrent leadership contests for the two biggest posts in UK politics. The facts we know are literally changing by the […]

  • Who would replace Jeremy Corbyn?

    Who would replace Jeremy Corbyn?

    As the Brexit fallout continues to reverberate through British politics, the Labour Party stands on the brink of a destructive, potentially life-threatening civil war. On the latest count, 21 Shadow Cabinet members have resigned and a vote of no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn seems certain to trigger a leadership contest. This morning, the Labour leader […]

  • Brexit betting and verdict: Narrow win for REMAIN

    Brexit betting and verdict: Narrow win for REMAIN

    When the referendum campaign began, I recommended one bet, on a narrow preference for the status quo, with REMAIN getting between 50.01 and 55% of the vote share. Specifically, by a margin of 52-48. On the eve of our most significant vote in living memory, I’m standing by that prediction and making no changes to […]

  • Stop Trump plot thickens with rules committee picks

    Stop Trump plot thickens with rules committee picks

    A further significant development in the Republican nomination saga. We now know who will comprise the party’s Rules Committee, which will meet on July 14th to lay out the rules governing their convention four days later. They have the power to kill any Stop Trump moves stone dead, or bring them to life. It is a […]

  • As REMAIN strengthens, will the market be proved right again?

    As REMAIN strengthens, will the market be proved right again?

    It would appear that, three days out from the EU Membership Referendum, the market is taking a definitive view. REMAIN has never ceded favouritism but, in the middle of last week, looked as though it might. However a slew of positive polling news for REMAIN and a popular sense that the mood was inching back […]

  • Is this how the GOP plan to ditch Donald Trump?

    Is this how the GOP plan to ditch Donald Trump?

    Against a backdrop of never ending controversy and catastrophic poll numbers, we’ve been waiting to see if and how Donald Trump’s enemies would try to stop him at the convention. We may now have an answer to both. First, Paul Ryan said that House Republicans must go with their conscience when deciding whether to support […]

  • Brexit update: Time to cover on Leave

    Brexit update: Time to cover on Leave

    Following weeks of big stakes on betting markets without that much volatility, exciting things are definitely afoot. Polls clearly identify a shift in favour of LEAVE and, despite daily waves of resistance, it is moving closer by the minute to REMAIN, the longstanding favourite. This is a very positive development for my various betting positions, […]

  • Seven potential VP picks for Hillary Clinton

    Seven potential VP picks for Hillary Clinton

    Now Hillary Clinton has passed the threshold to secure the Democrat nomination, betting focus shifts to her choice of running mate. In last week’s piece for Betfair, I weighed up the chances of seven possible vice presidential candidates. Bernie Sanders – Odds 12.0 While Hillary Clinton’s long-term focus is on Donald Trump, a more pressing concern […]

  • Could the GOP still block Donald Trump?

    Could the GOP still block Donald Trump?

    Just a week ago, Donald Trump’s improbable bid to be president was looking likelier than ever. Senior Republicans were uniting around him and his poll deficit was closing fast. Hillary Clinton drifted out to 1.58 in the Next President market. Now, after just a small taste of what his campaign will look like, the handwringing has […]