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Two new bets, plus trading tips: How caution and hedging make for good strategy.
On this huge day in the US election cycle, I make absolutely no apology for keeping stakes small and literally hedging my bets. Anything less would be irresponsible, given the treacherous difficulty in predicting this New Hampshire Primary. The Republican side at least – where the interesting betting lies. I’m quite sure that the market…
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GOPDebate verdict: Rubio the latest victim of GOP cage fight
I’ve observed before how the size and brutal nature of the race to be GOP nominee is doing the party no favours, damaging one candidate after another. In the final debate before Tuesday’s pivotal New Hampshire Primary, the last undamaged figure took a beating. My main sentiment this morning is relief that I’ve only staked…
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Will a late Rubio surge deny Trump again?
Following yesterday’s advised bet on Twitter to back Marco Rubio to win New Hampshire, here’s a detailed explanation. New bet: 4 units on @marcorubio to win New Hampshire @ 4.0 (3 to 1). Will blog asap, may add more in coming days. — Political Gambler (@paulmotty) February 5, 2016 The political betting story of this…
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New bet: Rubio stake covered, leaving big risk-free bet
One new position to report, as advised on Twitter yesterday. I’ve laid back the 25 units stake from Saturday’s bet on Marco Rubio to be Next President. New bet: I've laid the 25 unit stake back of previous Marco Rubio for president bet at 4.2. Leaves risk free bet to win 105 units. — Political…
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Rubio all the rage after Trump supporters fail to turn up
Yet again, opinion polls have been proved spectacularly wrong in a major political betting event. Yet again, odds-on backers were taught a lesson about trying to buy money in US primary elections. Monday’s Iowa Caucuses turned the Republican Nomination race on it’s head and, after a photo-finish, set the Democrat race up for a fascinating…
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New bet on Marco Rubio for President: Here’s why.
We’re already on Ted Cruz to be the Republican nominee. Backing Marco Rubio now is the perfect cover. As promised when advising this bet on Twitter yet, some more detailed reasoning. Even after banking a profit from my initial position on Cruz, he could net a further 250 units profit. It makes perfect sense to cover…
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Iowa Caucus Verdict: Oppose odds-on favourite Donald Trump
He has defied all expert opinion and conventional wisdom since the beginning of this race six months ago. One by one, rivals that challenged him have been abused and ended up worse for wear. He has the media dancing to his tune and gives the impression that he could be rewriting the rules of political…
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GOP Debate Verdict: Absent Trump the runaway winner
A conspiracy theorist might think the row between Fox News and Donald Trump had been manufactured. It ensured that, during a crucial window in which Iowa voters traditionally take a closer look at all the candidates, the entire media focus was on a celebrity and trivia, rather than policy. It also ensured a debate in…
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Kasich emerging as the main NH challenger to Trump
Ohio Governor’s surge is terrible news for Marco Rubio Against the general consensus, and betting markets that pointed first towards Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, John Kasich is emerging as the biggest challenger to Donald Trump in the key New Hampshire primary. The latest poll puts him on 20%, seven points down on long-term leader…
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As Donald Trump goes favourite, its time to take him on
Has Trump picked a fight with the wrong man? After a dramatic, divisive week in the race for the Republican Nomination, there’s no question which candidate has the greatest momentum on Betfair markets. With the race looking ever likelier to be a three-cornered scrap, Donald Trump was matched last night at a new low of…