Tag: Jeremy Corbyn

  • Brexit betting – A deal is done but will parliament vote for it?

    Brexit betting – A deal is done but will parliament vote for it?

    This piece was first published at betting.betfair on October 17th, 2019 It will come as no surprise to anyone that various Betfair politics markets have been going wild this morning amid the fast moving events in Brussels. Brexit by October 31, for example, has been backed in from around 4.5 to shorter than 3.0. First, […]

  • Why its time to bet against Brexit

    Why its time to bet against Brexit

    This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on Thursday 10th October. If we believe the media speculation, I may have underestimated a chance of Boris Johnson securing a Brexit deal. Nevertheless, even a deal would in my view only get through parliament now if a confirmatory referendum is attached. That eventuality lies behind the recommended bet […]

  • Brexit Latest – The Imminent Election is Anything But Predictable

    Brexit Latest – The Imminent Election is Anything But Predictable

    The pretence is already over. Less than a week after Boris Johnson unveiled his new plan for a Brexit deal, it is in tatters. In line with the strategy discussed many times in recent months, the British government and the EU are at loggerheads. .@BorisJohnson, what’s at stake is not winning some stupid blame game. […]

  • Brexit Latest – If you want to back Brexit, back No Deal

    Brexit Latest – If you want to back Brexit, back No Deal

    At last, four weeks from the Brexit Date, we know what Boris Johnson considers to be a good withdrawal deal. The task now for the EU, media, parliamentarians and punters, is to decide whether it has any realistic chance of success. The PM laid out his plan to the Tory party conference yesterday, hours after […]

  • How Margaret Beckett could become Prime Minister

    How Margaret Beckett could become Prime Minister

    This piece first appeared at gambling.com on 1st October 2019. The past week in UK politics may have been more divisive and depressing than ever but at least there is one consolation. Almost every hour brings another twist to an ever-increasing array of political betting opportunities. The end of this particular parliament is imminent, but few can […]

  • Brexit Latest – What next after Supreme Court strikes down prorogation?

    Brexit Latest – What next after Supreme Court strikes down prorogation?

    The Supreme Court has delivered its unanimous judgement – Boris Johnson’s prorogation of parliament was unlawful. Betfair markets reacted instantly with the PM backed briefly at odds-on to cease to be Conservative Leader this year and a 2019 General Election is now rated 70% likely at odds of 1.42. To be clear though, nobody can […]

  • Brexit Latest: Is Labour’s position electoral suicide or smarter than first appears?

    Brexit Latest: Is Labour’s position electoral suicide or smarter than first appears?

    A core lesson of recent times is to never take political trends and outcomes for granted. To consider counter-intuitive arguments before betting on what appears to be obvious. For example, seven weeks before the 2017 general election, there was much talk about the end of the Labour Party. They lagged 20% behind in the polls, […]

  • Next UK General Election – Latest Thoughts

    Next UK General Election – Latest Thoughts

    We still don’t know precisely when, but a UK General Election is imminent. William Hill offer a best price of 10/11 about it taking place in October, whereas Paddy Power are best at 15/8 about a November election. That small difference in the date is extremely significant. Indeed, punting on the result before we know the date is fraught […]

  • Is an October General Election Inevitable?

    Is an October General Election Inevitable?

    This article was first published on 3rd September at betting.betfair.com After yet another extraordinary, dramatic day in UK politics, few if any observers are any clearer. Quelle surprise. Protesters almost drown out Johnson speech An October General Election – tipped here last week at 4.6 – crashed into 1.25 after it was announced Boris Johnson […]

  • Brexit Latest – Election odds-on to occur before Brexit

    Brexit Latest – Election odds-on to occur before Brexit

    This piece was first published on 29th August 2019 for betting.betfair.com Having spent all summer on tenterhooks, waiting to learn precisely how Boris Johnson’s government plans to deliver its Brexit promises, British politics finally blew up yesterday and entered a new, highly unpredictable phase. Prorogation exacerbates political divide Johnson’s decision to prorogue parliament for five […]