Category: US Politics

  • Marco Rubio is the big market mover on Betfair

    Marco Rubio is the big market mover on Betfair

    Florida senator closes in on Jeb Bush for GOP favouritism With Donald Trump on the wane and Jeb Bush stalling in the race to be Republican nominee, political gamblers have been scratching around for better-priced alternatives. Down the field outsiders Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina, recommended here at around 1.5% apiece for the Presidency, are […]

  • Is the Trump bandwagon grinding to a halt?

    Is the Trump bandwagon grinding to a halt?

    Front-runner in GOP polls slips further behind on Betfair markets From the outset of his bid for the Republican Nomination, Donald Trump has monopolised media attention, driving record TV ratings for both debates. The Betfair markets, however, have never truly bought it and after a difficult week for the front-runner, confidence is waning fast. Click […]

  • Who benefits most from Scott Walker’s exit?

    Who benefits most from Scott Walker’s exit?

    Cruz will last the distance as rivals begin to fall away Slowly but surely, the Republican field is whittling down towards a more manageable number, with Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker the latest to accept inevitable defeat. Considering he was second favourite for the nomination just a couple of months ago, this is a particularly significant development. […]

  • Political Betting on the 2016 US Election!

    Earlier this summer, I was privileged to be the guest on a superb pilot political talk show, The Cheat Sheet, presented by Melissa Caen of CBS KPIX 5. In this short film, we discuss the concept of political betting, past trends regarding US elections and my early views about 2016. I should point out at […]

  • Carly Fiorina rising fast after debate win

    Carly Fiorina rising fast after debate win

    Businesswoman steals the show from Donald Trump From the early market reaction there’s no question about who ‘won’ last night’s second Republican debate. In line with almost universal good reviews, Carly Fiorina is storming up the markets. The former CEO of Hewlett Packard is now trading at [11.0] or 9% for the nomination, [30.0] (3%) […]

  • Beware overhyped, early GOP favourites

    Beware overhyped, early GOP favourites

    Will Jeb prove to be another dodgy Republican favourite? Thanks in no small part to Donald Trump, the 2016 Election campaign has become big news even earlier than usual. 11 candidates, (out of 16 left in the field), will debate in California tomorrow, suggesting the most open race in history. The fundamental challenge facing 14 […]

  • Why I’m waiting for Biden’s decision

    Some believed that Joe Biden’s appearance on the new Stephen Colbert show would be the launchpad for a Presidential run, that would transform the race to be Democrat Nominee. As it turned out, the VP confirmed what was already in the public domain – that he’s struggling to commit to such a life-changing decision, in […]

  • Ben Carson is a better value bet than Trump

    Ben Carson is a better value bet than Trump

    In my latest #election 2016 update for @BetfairExchange; I make the case for a bet on outsider Dr Ben Carson and to keep an eye out for the emerging Carly Fiorina. Like Donald Trump, neither are politicians and therefore able to make capital from the groundswell of anti-Washington sentiment within GOP ranks. Unlike Trump, their […]