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Portfolio updates for Brexit, Tory & Labour markets
At the end of a week which, I’m sure we can all agree was like no other any Brit can remember, let’s settle up and review our various positions and the situation moving forward. First, the good news. Brexit worked out very well. The published portfolio yielded 76 units profit and after two in-play cover…
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Boris must be regarded the Tory front-runner
Favouritism for the Conservative Leadership race has been switching back and forth between Boris Johnson and Theresa May all day. At one stage May went down to 2.34 (43%) but tonight Johnson is back in front at 2.3 (43%) to her odds of 3.1 (32%). I think this is right, and managed to jump aboard…
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Next Tory leader market points to Boris v May
Political bettors have never had it so good. No sooner have we drawn breath, following the most significant vote in living memory and the biggest market in political betting history, than we are presented with concurrent leadership contests for the two biggest posts in UK politics. The facts we know are literally changing by the…
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Who would replace Jeremy Corbyn?
As the Brexit fallout continues to reverberate through British politics, the Labour Party stands on the brink of a destructive, potentially life-threatening civil war. On the latest count, 21 Shadow Cabinet members have resigned and a vote of no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn seems certain to trigger a leadership contest. This morning, the Labour leader…
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Brexit betting and verdict: Narrow win for REMAIN
When the referendum campaign began, I recommended one bet, on a narrow preference for the status quo, with REMAIN getting between 50.01 and 55% of the vote share. Specifically, by a margin of 52-48. On the eve of our most significant vote in living memory, I’m standing by that prediction and making no changes to…
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As REMAIN strengthens, will the market be proved right again?
It would appear that, three days out from the EU Membership Referendum, the market is taking a definitive view. REMAIN has never ceded favouritism but, in the middle of last week, looked as though it might. However a slew of positive polling news for REMAIN and a popular sense that the mood was inching back…
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Brexit update: Time to cover on Leave
Following weeks of big stakes on betting markets without that much volatility, exciting things are definitely afoot. Polls clearly identify a shift in favour of LEAVE and, despite daily waves of resistance, it is moving closer by the minute to REMAIN, the longstanding favourite. This is a very positive development for my various betting positions,…
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Hedge between markets for a great value Brexit trade
Trying to find a cheap, value punt in the Brexit markets has not been straightforward. So far as the main result market is concerned, the scope for short-term trading has been limited and taking a confident view involves a sizeable risk, in a referendum which is far from clear cut. Remain, for example, has traded…
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Brexit update: Swift u-turn required as LEAVE poll numbers sink
While the Brexit markets are enormous, they have been frustratingly static for months. That, I suspect is about to change, and that means we need to act fast in reversing our latest position. Therefore, as advised on Twitter, I’m cancelling my recent bet on LEAVE to get over 47.5%, taking a two unit loss. #Brexit…
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Win or lose, LEAVE is under-rated on Brexit markets
Five weeks out from our most important vote in over 40 years, the detached nature of political conversation says much about the condition of UK politics. On one hand, a substantial minority are deeply engaged in the Brexit referendum. It is the central political discussion among the type of people that care about, follow or…