Month: February 2020

  • SC debate could be the last chance to stop Bernie Sanders

    SC debate could be the last chance to stop Bernie Sanders

    Ahead of the busiest, and invariably decisive spell of primary season, the importance of Tuesday’s Democrat debate from South Carolina cannot be overstated. Following his resounding, poll-beating victory in Nevada, Bernie Sanders is even money favourite to win the nomination. This won’t be the final debate but may very well be the last chance for […]

  • Democrat Nomination: Where do we stand after Nevada?

    Democrat Nomination: Where do we stand after Nevada?

    This article first appeared at The Hub, on Tuesday 25th February WHAT HISTORY TELLS US Having constantly noted the parallels between the 2016 Republican Primary and the 2020 Democrat race now seems a good time to compare the state of play. Donald Trump lost Iowa, won New Hampshire, before a thumping victory in Nevada confirmed […]

  • Nevada Caucuses Betting Tips: Sanders set to open up big lead as Bloomberg bombs

    Nevada Caucuses Betting Tips: Sanders set to open up big lead as Bloomberg bombs

    This piece first appeared at betting.betfair.com on Friday February 21st It’s often said that TV debates can’t move the needle anymore and that has largely been the case during several months of the Democrat primaries. Michael Bloomberg’s debut in Nevada, however, just wrecked that theory, at least if impacting betting markets is the criteria. Bloomberg […]

  • Trump’s path to victory is opening – a Democrat civil war

    Trump’s path to victory is opening – a Democrat civil war

    This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 17th February 2020 Long-term readers may be shocked. After five years covering the Trump beat with incessant negativity, only pausing briefly to cut my losses on THAT night in 2016, I’m coming around to the idea that the nightmare may not end in November. There is a way […]

  • Democrat Nominee: Where do we stand after New Hampshire?

    Democrat Nominee: Where do we stand after New Hampshire?

    When writing last week’s analysis, five Democrat candidates were trading lower than $100 for the presidency. There are still five but we’ve had a swap – Amy Klobuchar’s odds have crashed to $80 from around $270, while Elizabeth Warren is out to $200. From odds-on favourite in October, she’s now dismissed at $140 to win […]

  • New Hampshire Primary Betting – Sanders winning but watch out for Klobuchar surge

    New Hampshire Primary Betting – Sanders winning but watch out for Klobuchar surge

    Of 3979 delegates up for grabs during the Democrat nomination process, a mere 41 were decided in Iowa. Once again though, the ‘Hawkeye State’ demonstrated the importance of going first in primary season as events in that chaotic race have reshaped the narrative and left several campaigns on life support. Tuesday’s New Hampshire Primary could […]

  • Democrat Nominee Betting and Analysis – Where do we stand post-Iowa?

    BERNIE SANDERS Nomination $2.62 Presidency: $6.2 Although Sanders didn’t have the clear victory that the betting projected in Iowa, he definitely emerges as the front-runner. He’s trading below $1.20 and $1.50 to win the next races in New Hampshire and Nevada respectively. If he delivers in both, he would surely be heavily odds-on for the […]

  • Post-Iowa, what is at stake in New Hampshire debates?

    Post-Iowa, what is at stake in New Hampshire debates?

    This piece was first published on February 6th at betting.betfair.com Its happened again. One race into the 2020 US Election and the betting carnage is underway. With 97% reporting from the Iowa Caucus, just 0.1% separates Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders in terms of delegates. Iowa produces another massive betting flip-flop The former was matched […]

  • Iowa Caucuses – Bernie Sanders starts ahead but can we trust the polls?

    Iowa Caucuses – Bernie Sanders starts ahead but can we trust the polls?

    The 2020 US Election starts tonight, with the Iowa Caucuses. As always, Betfair markets will stay open throughout the counting process until a winner (most delegates) is declared. It could well be a very long night! Polls contain huge margin of error Polling signals are far from clear. The psephological and political betting communities were […]

  • Democrat Presidential Primaries 2020 – An Overview

    Democrat Presidential Primaries 2020 – An Overview

    What are primaries and how do they work? Presidential primaries are the electoral process to determine the candidates representing the main parties. Starting on February 3 and lasting several months, registered Democrats and would-be supporters in each state will vote for their preferred candidate. The winners and prominent performers in each race are duly awarded […]