Month: October 2019

  • A December general election could mark the demise of Remainer resistance

    A December general election could mark the demise of Remainer resistance

    This article first appeared yesterday, 29th October 2019, at betting.betfair.com The speculation is all but over – there will be a general election in December. The exact date will be confirmed this afternoon. A market that has seen various different months and years trade at odds-on throughout this chaotic Brexit process is finally all but […]

  • Brexit betting – Is Boris Johnson’s plan about to hit a wall?

    Brexit betting – Is Boris Johnson’s plan about to hit a wall?

    This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 21st October 2019 In keeping with the general rule of Brexit, the facts changed whilst writing my last piece on Friday. The Letwin Amendment duly obliterated the government’s plan for a straight vote on their Brexit deal and consequently, ‘Super Saturday’ didn’t quite live up to its billing. […]

  • Brexit Latest – How to play the Super Saturday markets

    This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on October 18th, 2019 Get set for an unprecedented day in UK politics with Parliament sitting for the first time on a Saturday since the Falklands War. By the end of it, Brexiters hope the last meaningful obstacle to Britain leaving the EU will be cleared. Remainers hope Brexit […]

  • Brexit betting – A deal is done but will parliament vote for it?

    Brexit betting – A deal is done but will parliament vote for it?

    This piece was first published at betting.betfair on October 17th, 2019 It will come as no surprise to anyone that various Betfair politics markets have been going wild this morning amid the fast moving events in Brussels. Brexit by October 31, for example, has been backed in from around 4.5 to shorter than 3.0. First, […]

  • Latest Donald Trump Impeachment Odds and Analysis

    Latest Donald Trump Impeachment Odds and Analysis

    This article was first published for Betfair Australia’s “The Hub” on 11th October 2019 With just over a year until the 2020 election, Donald Trump is in turmoil. Since Nancy Pelosi announced an impeachment inquiry, the President has been beset by even more scandal than usual. His chance of re-election is falling, from 50% to […]

  • Why its time to bet against Brexit

    Why its time to bet against Brexit

    This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on Thursday 10th October. If we believe the media speculation, I may have underestimated a chance of Boris Johnson securing a Brexit deal. Nevertheless, even a deal would in my view only get through parliament now if a confirmatory referendum is attached. That eventuality lies behind the recommended bet […]

  • Brexit Latest – The Imminent Election is Anything But Predictable

    Brexit Latest – The Imminent Election is Anything But Predictable

    The pretence is already over. Less than a week after Boris Johnson unveiled his new plan for a Brexit deal, it is in tatters. In line with the strategy discussed many times in recent months, the British government and the EU are at loggerheads. .@BorisJohnson, what’s at stake is not winning some stupid blame game. […]

  • Brexit Latest – If you want to back Brexit, back No Deal

    Brexit Latest – If you want to back Brexit, back No Deal

    At last, four weeks from the Brexit Date, we know what Boris Johnson considers to be a good withdrawal deal. The task now for the EU, media, parliamentarians and punters, is to decide whether it has any realistic chance of success. The PM laid out his plan to the Tory party conference yesterday, hours after […]

  • How Margaret Beckett could become Prime Minister

    How Margaret Beckett could become Prime Minister

    This piece first appeared at gambling.com on 1st October 2019. The past week in UK politics may have been more divisive and depressing than ever but at least there is one consolation. Almost every hour brings another twist to an ever-increasing array of political betting opportunities. The end of this particular parliament is imminent, but few can […]