Month: September 2019

  • Donald Trump Impeachment Betting – Impeachment by the House now odds-on

    Donald Trump Impeachment Betting – Impeachment by the House now odds-on

    This article first appeared on 25th September 2019 at betting.betfair.com After months, even years of speculation, Democrats have stepped up. Speaker Nancy Pelosi confirmed last night that the House of Representatives will begin a formal impeachment investigation into Donald Trump. The times have found us. The actions taken to date by the President have seriously […]

  • Brexit Latest – What next after Supreme Court strikes down prorogation?

    Brexit Latest – What next after Supreme Court strikes down prorogation?

    The Supreme Court has delivered its unanimous judgement – Boris Johnson’s prorogation of parliament was unlawful. Betfair markets reacted instantly with the PM backed briefly at odds-on to cease to be Conservative Leader this year and a 2019 General Election is now rated 70% likely at odds of 1.42. To be clear though, nobody can […]

  • Brexit Latest: Is Labour’s position electoral suicide or smarter than first appears?

    Brexit Latest: Is Labour’s position electoral suicide or smarter than first appears?

    A core lesson of recent times is to never take political trends and outcomes for granted. To consider counter-intuitive arguments before betting on what appears to be obvious. For example, seven weeks before the 2017 general election, there was much talk about the end of the Labour Party. They lagged 20% behind in the polls, […]

  • Will Boris Johnson Break The Law Or Is He Bluffing?

    Will Boris Johnson Break The Law Or Is He Bluffing?

    This article was first published on 9th September 2019, for betting.betfair.com There is nothing original in noting the similarities between Donald Trump and Boris Johnson and another can be found in the betting. Even before Trump’s inauguration, large bets were placed below odds of 4.0 about him failing to survive that first year. 2019 is […]

  • Next UK General Election – Latest Thoughts

    Next UK General Election – Latest Thoughts

    We still don’t know precisely when, but a UK General Election is imminent. William Hill offer a best price of 10/11 about it taking place in October, whereas Paddy Power are best at 15/8 about a November election. That small difference in the date is extremely significant. Indeed, punting on the result before we know the date is fraught […]

  • Is an October General Election Inevitable?

    Is an October General Election Inevitable?

    This article was first published on 3rd September at betting.betfair.com After yet another extraordinary, dramatic day in UK politics, few if any observers are any clearer. Quelle surprise. Protesters almost drown out Johnson speech An October General Election – tipped here last week at 4.6 – crashed into 1.25 after it was announced Boris Johnson […]

  • Will Donald Trump Be Impeached?

    Will Donald Trump Be Impeached?

    This article first appeared on 30th August at casino.org Among the few sages that predicted Donald Trump’s historic betting upset in 2016 was Professor Allan Lichtman. He also predicted that the new president would be impeached and duly wrote a book laying out the case. He now predicts Trump will win again in 2020 unless the  Democrats […]

  • Brexit Latest – Election odds-on to occur before Brexit

    Brexit Latest – Election odds-on to occur before Brexit

    This piece was first published on 29th August 2019 for betting.betfair.com Having spent all summer on tenterhooks, waiting to learn precisely how Boris Johnson’s government plans to deliver its Brexit promises, British politics finally blew up yesterday and entered a new, highly unpredictable phase. Prorogation exacerbates political divide Johnson’s decision to prorogue parliament for five […]