Month: August 2019

  • 2020 US Election – Could Donald Trump be replaced on the GOP ticket?

    2020 US Election – Could Donald Trump be replaced on the GOP ticket?

    Donald Trump is weakening on Betfair’s 2020 US Election markets. From a low of 1.98 he’s out to 2.24 in the wake of atrocious polls and ever more erratic behaviour. There’s also a minor move against him to be the Republican Nominee, from 1.08 to 1.14. Granted, these are lower odds than the levels I’ve […]

  • Next Conservative Leader Betting – Who will succeed Boris Johnson?

    Next Conservative Leader Betting – Who will succeed Boris Johnson?

    Some political betting markets never stop. No sooner have we settled a Tory leadership contest and the bookies are betting on who will succeed Boris Johnson. Who knows – with the new PM likely to face a No Confidence vote as soon as parliament emerges from recess, this could be settled within months. That, to be clear, is […]

  • Interview for Business of Betting Podcast

    This was a most enjoyable interview from earlier this year, with Jake Williams for his Business of Betting podcast. We discuss my route into political betting and becoming a professional gambler. Of particular relevance is our conversation regarding the 2020 election and how many extra variables we have to deal with nowadays, such as fake […]

  • Latest Brexit Betting – Can Anyone Stop No Deal?

    Latest Brexit Betting – Can Anyone Stop No Deal?

    We may have a new PM, Cabinet, fear of national meltdown and much talk of urgency, but the fundamentals of British politics haven’t changed. The clock towards a no deal Brexit is ticking, politicians and journalists are locked in discussion about how to prevent it. A good time to update my scenarios piece from last […]

  • Donald Trump Impeachment Betting and Analysis

    Donald Trump Impeachment Betting and Analysis

    Throughout the last few, relentlessly dramatic years, it has become increasingly clear that most of the British media is hopeless when it comes to covering US politics. Back in March, I immediately urged caution when almost every outlet portrayed Attorney General William Barr’s summary of the Mueller Report as fact – even the final word. […]

  • Who would win a snap general election?

    Who would win a snap general election?

    In the wake of last week’s predicted Brecon and Radnorshire by-election defeat, the Tory majority is reduced to one and a 2019 General Election is all the rage at a best price of just 8/13 with the best political betting sites. Who would win it? Before answering that, we must consider different contexts. One scenario involves […]

  • Next Labour Leader Betting – Who Will Succeed Corbyn?

    Next Labour Leader Betting – Who Will Succeed Corbyn?

    In March, I recommended a 6/1 bet on all three main party leaders losing their jobs by the end of the year. Two are gone, leaving Jeremy Corbyn as the final leg. Paddy Power now offer 12/5 (best priced with the best political betting sites) about a 2019 exit for the Labour leader. Labour strategists must be very worried. Corbyn is historically […]

  • Brecon and Radnorshire By Election Preview

    Brecon and Radnorshire By Election Preview

    Britain has a new Prime Minister and after Boris Johnson’s radical Cabinet reshuffle, the best political betting sites expect an imminent General Election. At 6/5, only one firm are offering better than evens about an election occurring before the end of 2019. Before that, there is the small matter of the Brecon and Radnorshire By Election – […]