Month: March 2019

  • Delayed or not, a no deal Brexit remains highly plausible

    Delayed or not, a no deal Brexit remains highly plausible

    This piece was first published on 5th March 2019 The chances of the UK leaving the European Union without a deal in 25 days time remain extremely low, according to Betfair markets. That dramatic outcome can be backed at 7.8 – equivalent to 13%. At 5.6 (18%), an on-time Brexit is only rated slightly likelier. […]

  • Beware the bandwagon – we’ve not yet seen the Mueller report

    Beware the bandwagon – we’ve not yet seen the Mueller report

    As he scours the headlines and hot takes on cable news, Donald Trump will enjoy this morning more than any since becoming president in 2016. The first glimpses of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s report into Russian interference in that election are out and on the principal charge, Trump and his campaign have been cleared of […]

  • Delayed or not, a no deal Brexit remains highly plausible

    Delayed or not, a no deal Brexit remains highly plausible

    This piece was first published on March 5th, 2019 The chances of the UK leaving the European Union without a deal in 25 days time remain extremely low, according to Betfair markets. That dramatic outcome can be backed at 7.8 – equivalent to 13%. At 5.6 (18%), an on-time Brexit is only rated slightly likelier. […]

  • Labour would emerge stronger from TIG split if Corbyn goes

    Labour would emerge stronger from TIG split if Corbyn goes

    This article was first published on February 25th, 2019 It is way too early to draw solid conclusions about The Independent Group. It isn’t yet a party and, despite plenty of coverage, most voters are probably still figuring out who they are. Their prospects and the wider effects remain an unpredictable, fast developing process. Nevertheless, […]

  • How will The Independent Group fare?

    How will The Independent Group fare?

    This article was first published on February 18th 2019, for www.betting.betfair.com It can’t be quite described as another political earthquake, given that it has been the subject of speculation for years and intensely in recent days. Nevertheless, another week in UK politics has started with a bombshell. Seven Labour MPs have quit the party and […]

  • Four scenarios that could produce a snap general election

    Four scenarios that could produce a snap general election

    This piece was first published on February 28th 2019 for www.casino.org Last month, I explained how Brexit – and the convoluted parliamentary process of delivering it – was generating countless political betting markets. With just 39 days until the UK is scheduled to leave the EU, nobody is any clearer how or if it will happen […]

  • Cohen testimony was merely the start of Donald Trump’s nightmare

    Cohen testimony was merely the start of Donald Trump’s nightmare

    It made instant news around the world, overshadowing the North Korea summit failure, It even knocked Brexit off the Newsnight lead. Michael Cohen’s testimony to Congress was both captivating in detail – laying out the president’s crimes and sparking new lines of investigation into several more – and political theatre. But did it move Betfair’s […]

  • Next Conservative Party Leader – The Top Ten Rankings

    Next Conservative Party Leader – The Top Ten Rankings

    I first wrote this piece six weeks ago. All the rankings and reasoning still apply! Following the legalisation of betting shops in the UK, the first political market to capture public attention was the 1963 contest to become the next Conservative Leader. The favourite Rab Butler was turned over by Alex Douglas-Home – starting a […]

  • Four reasons why you shouldn’t bet on Bernie Sanders for 2020

    Four reasons why you shouldn’t bet on Bernie Sanders for 2020

    This piece is from a fortnight ago. Bernie Sanders best odds are now 10/1 for the presidency and 11/2 for the Democrat nomination. All the arguments against still apply! A frequent political betting mistake is to refight the previous election. To assume the dynamics will be replicated. That the narrative which worked previously will remain […]