Month: January 2019

  • No Deal Brexit is now rated likelier than ever

    No Deal Brexit is now rated likelier than ever

    Wouldn’t it be nice to have some answers to all the Brexit questions we’ve been asking forever? Will it happen and if so, on time? If not, will there be a second referendum or a snap election? Yesterday’s famous day of amendments in parliament was meant to at least start to resolve them. It didn’t. […]

  • Trump presidency in mortal danger after shutdown humiliation

    Trump presidency in mortal danger after shutdown humiliation

    Following the mid-terms, I predicted all hell would break loose in the Donald Trump saga, from Robert Mueller to various criminal investigations, to ruinous oversight by a Democrat-led House of Representatives. All that has either materialised or is pending but I didn’t foresee Trump making a ruinous mis-step by forcing the longest shutdown in American […]

  • Who will succeed Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader?

    Who will succeed Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader?

    Never in UK politics has betting for the leadership of the two main parties been so wide-open. Not even close. However while the race to be the Next Conservative Leader garners endless chatter, Next Labour Leader barely gets a mention nowadays. This could be the opportune moment to pay attention. With Brexit threatening to unravel the […]

  • A 2019 election may be Theresa May’s only option

    A 2019 election may be Theresa May’s only option

    Once again, we start the week wondering whether it could be Theresa May’s last in office. The PM will present her Plan B – to the plan that lost by a historic 230 votes – to parliament. If weekend reports are accurate, no meaningful changes will be ensure little or no progress. New amendments set […]

  • What next after Parliament delivers historic defeat to May’s deal?

    What next after Parliament delivers historic defeat to May’s deal?

    To nobody’s surprise, the first reading of the Withdrawal Agreement was comprehensively trounced on Tuesday night as Theresa May’s government suffered the worst defeat in parliamentary history. On Wednesday, the process which we’ve been speculating about for months gets underway as the government faces a No Confidence Vote at 13:00. Literally nobody knows where we […]

  • Latest Brexit Betting – Five Scenarios

    Latest Brexit Betting – Five Scenarios

    The Brexit clock has ticked down 25 days since my last update – leaving just 79 until departure – but the parliamentary process to deliver it smoothly has barely moved forward. Parliament ties May’s hands ahead of probable defeat Thanks to the intervention of controversial Speaker John Bercow, this week’s parliamentary drama merely confirmed what […]

  • 2019 Political Betting Preview – Five stories to follow

    2019 Political Betting Preview – Five stories to follow

    The number of betting options on politics is growing exponentially and 2019 will be no exception. Elections for the European Parliament will make big news in May and have big implications. A Danish General Election will follow soon after while Sweden – who are yet to resolve coalition talks produced by September’s poll – are […]

  • Will Brexit finish Jeremy Corbyn?

    Will Brexit finish Jeremy Corbyn?

    Brexit may have ripped politics apart but it has yet to remove either of the main party leaders – despite no shortage of opposition. Like Article 50, though, the clock is ticking. Recent speculation has centred on Theresa May, who was matched at just 1.1 to be Next Leader to Leave and is still odds-on […]

  • Theresa May Exit Betting – Three Scenarios

    Theresa May Exit Betting – Three Scenarios

    She has become a great survivor, defying political gravity for the last 18 months. Few believed Theresa May could maintain her position for long after losing her majority at the 2017 election and the PM has been regarded as on the brink ever since. The best political betting sites expect the saga will finally end in 2019, […]