Month: August 2018

  • The next big political outsider – Michael Avenatti for President

    The next big political outsider – Michael Avenatti for President

    *Since writing this piece yesterday for Betfair, Avenatti’s odds have fallen from [100.0] to [40.0]. Such moves are typical so early in the race, when it doesn’t take much money to shift the market. I still think he’s a good value pick at [40.0] but equally doubt it will shorten up much more from here […]

  • Corruption will finish Trump but don’t bet on removal

    Corruption will finish Trump but don’t bet on removal

    Its all kicking off again in what has become the most bizarre political market in history. Just when it seemed that bettors were giving up on Donald Trump leaving office prematurely, the US legal system deals the President a double-whammy. Last night, Trump’s former campaign manager Paul Manafort was convicted on eight counts of financial […]

  • Will there be a new centrist party?

    Will there be a new centrist party?

    Ian Paisley of the DUP could become the first MP to lose his seat under the Recall Act, after being suspended from the House of Commons for failing to declare family holidays paid for by the Sri Lankan government. Under this relatively new law, if 10% of eligible voters in the constituency sign a petition, […]

  • Suburban backlash in Ohio 12 to intensify GOP mid-term worries

    Suburban backlash in Ohio 12 to intensify GOP mid-term worries

    The biggest political betting event of 2018 will be November’s mid-term US Congressional Elections. Three months out, Betfair markets rate control of the House of Representatives a virtually even contest, with the Democrats slight favourites at 1.91. Republicans remain hot favourites to win the Senate at 1.37. Ohio 12 is an excellent bellweather for the […]

  • Escalating legal troubles spell bad news for Trump

    Escalating legal troubles spell bad news for Trump

    Back in April, I explained the unique opportunities to hedge between various different, yet related, markets regarding Donald Trump’s future. While those odds have since shifted a little towards the president’s favour, the angle still offers trading mileage and the most recent signals point towards more drama ahead. A brief explanation of the hedging process […]