Month: October 2017

  • Markets move against Trump after Mueller’s opening Russia arrests

    Markets move against Trump after Mueller’s opening Russia arrests

    From the moment he entered politics, Donald Trump has repeatedly defied the verdict of Betfair markets. After what will be known forever as Mueller Monday, he will need to defy them again merely in order to see out his full term. The US President is now rated likelier than not – odds of 1.9 are […]

  • Win free tickets to the Matchbook Traders Conference!

    We’ve got a great event to look forward to at the beginning of next month – a unique opportunity to hear┬ásome of the finest minds from the world of betting and network with a like-minded audience of gambling enthusiasts. The annual Matchbook Traders Conference has already developed a tremendous reputation and will take place in […]

  • Is politics now inherently unpredictable?

    Is politics now inherently unpredictable?

    I was recently privileged to join a distinguished panel for the Sheffield Political Economy Research Institute, at Cambridge University, discussing the future of politics. In response to the question raised by this title, here’s my essay. Politics has only become uncertain because the rules of the game have changed In order to predict the future […]

  • 2020 US Election Betting: Who will be the Democrat candidate?

    2020 US Election Betting: Who will be the Democrat candidate?

    Less than a year after the most memorable election in the history of political betting, it is time to start thinking seriously about the sequel. While speculation remains rife regarding whether President Donald Trump will again be the Republican candidate or even last a full term – he’s only rated 50% likely to do so […]

  • Two new outside bets for Next Conservative leader

    Two new outside bets for Next Conservative leader

    After weeks of overtly attempting to destabilise his boss and the media saturation that he knew it would generate, Boris Johnson has resumed favouritism to be the Next Tory Leader. However at 6.4, equivalent to a 15% chance, this market move carries nothing like the optimism that forced his odds down to 2.66 (37%) during […]