Month: August 2016

  • Traders can still win big from opposing Trump

    Traders can still win big from opposing Trump

    As illustrated in previous portfolios, my betting plans are not necessarily based on taking a definitive prediction about the result or, in some cases, even taking much of a risk. Rather, the game is to set up a position that is predicted to improve on betting markets over time. Even better, hedge multiple markets against […]

  • Is 2016 the year for a minor party breakthrough?

    Is 2016 the year for a minor party breakthrough?

    From the moment 17 Republican candidates headed by a reality TV star kickstarted the process, the 2016 election cycle has been unique and unpredictable. With fewer than 80 days remaining, markets point to a one-sided contest yet both adjectives still apply. Betfair punters will be used to the straight-up, binary choice available in the three […]

  • The electoral map looks devastating for Trump

    The electoral map looks devastating for Trump

    Four years ago, at this stage of the 2012 presidential cycle, there was a stark difference between clear betting market signals and a commentariat loathe to jump off the fence. Whereas pundits were saying en masse that the race was ‘too close to call’, Betfair punters consistently made Barack Obama the odds-on favourite to beat […]

  • 5 reasons why Brexit doesn’t mean Donald Trump will win

    5 reasons why Brexit doesn’t mean Donald Trump will win

    The decision of UK voters to quit the European Union did not just send shockwaves through British politics. The world was watching, seeking to understand what it may signify for their own futures. Indeed, it was widely seen as the latest demonstration of an anti-establishment trend sweeping across the Western world. In particular, as I’ve […]

  • #Election2016 update for “Watching the Hawks”

    #Election2016 update for “Watching the Hawks”

    Yesterday, I was privileged to make a return visit to RT America’s “Watching The Hawks’, to discuss the latest US Election betting news with Tyrel Ventura. We also discussed Brexit – both in terms of the betting and whether the UK will actually leave the European Union. Watch the full interview here    

  • Is it time to take #RecallTrump seriously?

    Is it time to take #RecallTrump seriously?

    As a gambler, one must always be mindful of talking up your own position. Of becoming too convinced by your own opinion that you can’t see the wood for the trees. I’ve been wrestling with this position for months, regarding the unprecedented, bizarre and increasingly ridiculous candidacy of Donald Trump. My longstanding opposition to Trump […]

  • 7 reasons why Donald Trump won’t win

    7 reasons why Donald Trump won’t win

    The idea that a celebrity, reality TV star could become US President always seemed faintly ridiculous – until Donald Trump defied the commentariat and betting odds to win the Republican nomination. Betfair punters take a similarly dim view about his general election chances, rating him only 22% likely to beat Hillary Clinton at odds of […]

  • Scrutiny will eventually destroy Donald Trump

    Scrutiny will eventually destroy Donald Trump

    Sceptics of my longstanding, confident prediction that Hillary Clinton will beat Donald Trump in November often ask the same question – “He’s got this far despite you all writing him off, so why can’t Trump prove you all wrong again?”. The question is unarguably valid. Like so many others, I simply couldn’t envisage Trump lasting […]

  • Can Clinton maintain Betfair’s perfect record?

    Can Clinton maintain Betfair’s perfect record?

    The predictive qualities of political betting markets have become an ever more salient talking point in recent years, based on a near perfect record in big elections. Since the inception of Betfair in 2001, the favourite from 100 days out to be Next President or party to win the most seats went on to win […]