Month: April 2016

  • Trump on the brink of victory ahead of Indiana

    Trump on the brink of victory ahead of Indiana

    A presidential match-up between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton is rated likelier than ever after the front-runners totally dominated Tuesday’s round of primaries in the North-East. Clinton is now just 1.04 to be the Democrat Nominee and [1.34] to become Next President, which equates to 96% and 75% chances respectively. On the Republican side, Trump […]

  • #NeverTrump’s growing legitimacy problem

    #NeverTrump’s growing legitimacy problem

    Following his predictable runaway win in New York, and ahead of tomorrow’s five North-East primaries, Donald Trump is rated 70% likely on betting markets to be the Republican Nominee. Precisely the mark he was before a predictable loss in Wisconsin, which caused a dramatic over-reaction and slide to a trough of 44%. On that basis, we can assume that by the […]

  • Front-runners to regain momentum in New York

    Front-runners to regain momentum in New York

    When the primaries began well over two months ago, few expected both Republican and Democrat races would still be exciting betting heats by the time the process reached New York. Normally at this stage, the leading candidate is well on course to win a majority of delegates, and the latter primaries serve as a chance […]

  • Opening Brexit trade: Back a narrow win for Remain

    Opening Brexit trade: Back a narrow win for Remain

    In ten week’s time, the UK will vote on arguably it’s most important political decision in over 40 years, regarding membership of the European Union. After considering and debating the question for 20, the time has come to bet on it. I’m still loathe to make a definitive prediction about the result. The current odds – […]

  • If you think Trump will be nominee, now is the time to bet

    If you think Trump will be nominee, now is the time to bet

    Cruz and Trump’s combined odds understate their chance It goes without saying that the political leaning of US states differs, and that results will therefore vary significantly between primaries. Yet basing betting strategy on that simple, easily attained knowledge will have yielded easy profits throughout this cycle. For example, since primary voting began, the best […]

  • Is Donald Trump now being under-rated?

    Is Donald Trump now being under-rated?

    If not, there must be huge value to be found elsewhere Ahead of what seems a likely defeat tonight in Wisconsin, market support for Donald Trump continues to deteriorate. At 2.06 this morning, the GOP front-runner is the biggest odds he’s been since winning South Carolina in February to become the Republican Nominee. There are good […]

  • Trump weakening on Betfair as convention drama looms

    Trump weakening on Betfair as convention drama looms

    Betfair punters are fast losing faith in Donald Trump after a terrible week. From odds of 1.4 last weekend, equivalent to a 71% rating to win the Republican Nomination, the front-runner has drifted markedly on the exchange to 2.0 or 50%. In the meantime, principal rival Ted Cruz’s odds have more than halved from 8.4 […]

  • #Election2016 betting portfolio update

    #Election2016 betting portfolio update

    After nine months of betting, my full election bets portfolio page is getting ever harder to keep track of, so here’s some simpler profit and loss figures for the Republican Nominee and Next President markets, along with some thoughts about next steps. First, a new position, taking 8 units profit out of my earlier position on Paul Ryan at 400.0. Originally, a […]