Month: December 2015

  • Six political betting markets to watch in 2016

    Six political betting markets to watch in 2016

    2016 looks set to be the biggest year in political betting history, with the US Presidential Election taking centre-stage plus various big contests in the UK. Here, for @BetfairExchange, I look forward to six particularly exciting markets. US Presidential Election – Republican Nominee There’s no question which country’s politics will produce the most betting action during 2016. […]

  • Donald Trump and Jeremy Corbyn show outsiders are in fashion

    Donald Trump and Jeremy Corbyn show outsiders are in fashion

    Party elites and mainstream media have lost touch with grassroots opinion  Besides the fact they dominated headlines on either side of the Atlantic during 2015, few observers of UK and US politics will find much in common between Donald Trump and Jeremy Corbyn. Especially if they support either of them. However, regardless of the stark differences […]

  • Six reasons why the time has come to back Hillary Clinton

    Six reasons why the time has come to back Hillary Clinton

    Democrat front-runner’s odds look set to shorten throughout 2016 From the first moment I was asked to predict the winner of the 2016 US Presidential Election, my answer has been consistent – Hillary Rodham Clinton. However given her prohibitively short odds, I have yet to place a penny on her. Until now. In my view, […]

  • The big debate question: Has Donald Trump finally met his match?

    The big debate question: Has Donald Trump finally met his match?

    Trump may alienate supporters if attacking Cruz too hard It almost goes without saying that the latest debate for The Election Like No Other will again produce a record TV audience. Donald Trump will legitimately claim credit for that but, happily, CNN have refused to bow to his hilarious demand for a $5M appearance fee. Why […]

  • Clinton gains momentum as Donald Trump threatens to split the GOP

    Clinton gains momentum as Donald Trump threatens to split the GOP

    Democrat favourite shortens up on Betfair in response to GOP turmoil  Jeb Bush’s Presidential campaign has hardly been the most effective, but the one-time runaway favourite for the Republican Nomination made perhaps his most prescient intervention last week, wondering whether Donald Trump had cooked up a deal with his old pal Hillary Clinton. For the […]

  • Crowded, brutal New Hampshire race could hurt Rubio and the GOP mainstream

    Crowded, brutal New Hampshire race could hurt Rubio and the GOP mainstream

    Christie surge is thwarting the favourite’s momentum  At the end of a dramatic week in which Donald Trump’s ‘ban all Muslims from the USA’ created a worldwide storm and threatens to plunge his party into crisis , the race for the Republican Nomination is shaking up. Today’s big news is great news for followers of this blog’s […]

  • Debate: Does Oldham disaster signal UKIP’s imminent demise?

    Debate: Does Oldham disaster signal UKIP’s imminent demise?

    If they can’t compete in winnable by-elections, how can they progress?  Hands up. I could not have called the Oldham by-election more wrong. Like many others, I thought at the very least UKIP would at least give Labour a close fight, so the scale of their victory was a huge shock. Different people with different […]

  • Has Donald Trump gone too far this time?

    Has Donald Trump gone too far this time?

    Trump condemned across GOP spectrum over call to ban Muslims Considering the election isn’t until next November and even the first primary nearly two months away, the liquidity and volatility on Betfair’s US Presidential Election markets is unprecedented. The reason? As illustrated by record audiences for the TV debates, Donald Trump’s candidacy has captured public interest. […]

  • UKIP must be the value bet to win Oldham

    UKIP must be the value bet to win Oldham

    Turnout will be pivotal, and recent history bodes ill for Labour on that score In general, by-elections are the hardest political markets to predict. Opinion polls are even less reliable than usual, asking a mid-term question that only a small minority of engaged voters have spent more than a few minutes considering. Recent UK by-elections have […]