Month: November 2015

  • Markets turn against Jeremy Corbyn as Labour’s crisis deepens

    Markets turn against Jeremy Corbyn as Labour’s crisis deepens

    Defeat in this week’s by-election could prove a tipping point for controversial leader After another terrible week for Labour, Betfair markets are turning fast against the party and their new leader Jeremy Corbyn. Corbyn is now rated only 17% likely to lead Labour into the 2020 General Election, at odds of 6.2. On the Betfair Sportsbook, […]

  • Donald Trump odds hit their shortest yet, but beware underlying poll numbers

    Donald Trump odds hit their shortest yet, but beware underlying poll numbers

    Front-runner remains well behind in favorability among GOP supporters After nearly six months topping the polls for Republican Nominee, Donald Trump continues to confound conventional wisdom. Rather than falling away under scrutiny as the race gets serious, two surveys out yesterday showed the billionaire significantly extending his national lead. Bloomberg record him 4% ahead, PPP […]

  • Why I’m not taking the Ted Cruz profit just yet

    Why I’m not taking the Ted Cruz profit just yet

    Texas Senator has momentum and remains under-priced on betting markets  If you’re following my portfolio of bets on the US elections, you may be wondering why there’s been no new bets advised since backing Ted Cruz for the second time to be the Republican Nominee, four weeks ago. In short, I’m biding my time, very […]

  • Political betting on the US Election: Complete portfolio

    Political betting on the US Election: Complete portfolio

    All bets to be listed here. Click the link on each bet for the original advice and reasoning Backed Scott Walker for Next President 4 units @ 26 (4%) Laid Scott Walker for Next President 3 units @ 32 (3%)  (1 unit loss overall on Walker) Backed Ben Carson for Next President 4u @ 65 […]

  • Rubio hardens in the betting but dividing lines are emerging

    Rubio hardens in the betting but dividing lines are emerging

    GOP nomination could soon be a four-man race Market confidence behind Marco Rubio for the US Presidency hit a new peak today, following the latest TV debate. At odds of [5.9], the Florida Senator is now rated 17% for the Presidency – the only candidate with a double figure rating besides Democrat front-runner Hillary Clinton, […]

  • Fox Debate Preview: Is it time to forget conventional wisdom?

    Fox Debate Preview: Is it time to forget conventional wisdom?

    Could Ben Carson’s media woes actually help him? One Ted Cruz line from the last TV debate demonstrated why the current race for the Republican Nomination has blindsided the commentariat and remains of deep concern to the party establishment. Spelling out precisely how the moderators had gone after each candidate, Cruz opined that “The questions asked […]

  • Who’s right about the GOP? Polls or the market?

    Who’s right about the GOP? Polls or the market?

    Rubio’s odds in freefall despite poll showing Carson 18% ahead Sunday’s re-election of Turkish President Rayep Erdogan dealt a further blow to the most established means of predicting politics. Erdogan’s AKP won decisively with 49.4%, compared to an average of 43.7% in the last five opinion polls. In fairness, late opinion polls were banned from […]