Month: September 2015

  • 2012 Election: 3 reasons why Obama will win

    2012 Election: 3 reasons why Obama will win

    The 2012 US Presidential Election was one of my successful political betting markets ever, as I was consistently backing Obama from the 2010 mid-terms onwards. Here for Betfair, in May 2012, I argue he is well-placed to exploit three critical dividing lines. Click here to read the full article

  • Will Greece exit the Eurozone?

    Will Greece exit the Eurozone?

    Political betting can be about more than just party politics, elections and leadership contests. During the summer as the crisis in the Eurozone intensified, one of the most fluid markets concerned the Greek referendum on the Euro, and then whether they would stay in the single currency. For Betfair in July, when the odds were shortening fast…

  • Win or lose, Osborne’s star is rising

    Win or lose, Osborne’s star is rising

    The Chancellor is in pole position to succeed David Cameron LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM – MARCH 19: U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne attends the launch of the National Loan Guarantee Scheme (NLGS) at a Barclays Plc bank branch on March 19, 2012 in London, United Kingdom. Osborne won the backing of all except one…

  • 10 reasons to take Nigel Farage seriously

    10 reasons to take Nigel Farage seriously

    The last parliament saw a dramatic re-alignment in British party politics. The Lib Dems lost two-thirds of their support, while the SNP assumed almost total control of Scottish politics. The transformation of UKIP from irrelevant minor party to European Election winners, by-election insurgents and nationwide force represented another earthquake. 4M votes at the General Election had a…

  • Carly Fiorina rising fast after debate win

    Carly Fiorina rising fast after debate win

    Businesswoman steals the show from Donald Trump From the early market reaction there’s no question about who ‘won’ last night’s second Republican debate. In line with almost universal good reviews, Carly Fiorina is storming up the markets. The former CEO of Hewlett Packard is now trading at [11.0] or 9% for the nomination, [30.0] (3%)…

  • PMQs: Corbyn changes the conversation

    PMQs: Corbyn changes the conversation

    A good start, but the new leader’s fundamental problems were clear to see It is my confident prediction that more people watched this afternoon’s PMQs than ever before. Compared to the usual, mostly ignored, often derided piece of theatre, Jeremy Corbyn’s debut was genuinely a hot topic of conversation this morning. People from outside the political…

  • Beware overhyped, early GOP favourites

    Beware overhyped, early GOP favourites

    Will Jeb prove to be another dodgy Republican favourite? Thanks in no small part to Donald Trump, the 2016 Election campaign has become big news even earlier than usual. 11 candidates, (out of 16 left in the field), will debate in California tomorrow, suggesting the most open race in history. The fundamental challenge facing 14…

  • Corbyn confounds media derision with 24/1 win

    Corbyn confounds media derision with 24/1 win

    Although the profits were ensured weeks ago via a series of cover bets, today’s confirmation of Jeremy Corbyn as the next Labour leader was nevertheless a particularly satisfying moment. A vindication of my early tip, at which stage Corbyn was the unconsidered 24/1 outsider. A devastating blow for the credibility of the Westminster Village talking…

  • Why I’m waiting for Biden’s decision

    Some believed that Joe Biden’s appearance on the new Stephen Colbert show would be the launchpad for a Presidential run, that would transform the race to be Democrat Nominee. As it turned out, the VP confirmed what was already in the public domain – that he’s struggling to commit to such a life-changing decision, in…

  • Jeremy Corbyn tipped early at 24/1!

    Jeremy Corbyn tipped early at 24/1!

    SOUTHAMPTON, ENGLAND – AUGUST 25: Labour Leadership Candidate Jeremy Corbyn applauds as he speaks at a rally for supporters at the Hilton at the Ageas Bowl on August 25, 2015 in Southampton, England. Jeremy Corbyn remains the bookiesÕ favourite to win the Labour leadership contest which will be announced on September 12 after the ballots…